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Center for Nonlinear Studies |
On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of novel influenza A (H1N1) a pandemic. With limited supplies of vaccines and antivirals, countries and individuals are looking at other ways to reduce the spread of novel H1N1, particularly options that are cost effective and relatively easy to implement. Recent experiences with the SARS and 2009 H1N1 epidemics show that people would wear facemasks to protect themselves against infection; however, little research has been done to quantify the impact of the use of facemasks in reducing the spread of disease. We construct and analyze a mathematical model in which a portion of the population wears a facemask during the pandemic. We look at two scenarios, one in which N95 respirators are worn and one in which surgical masks are worn. To estimate the parameter values used for the effectiveness of facemasks, we used available data from studies done on N95 respirators and surgical masks. We conclude from our model that, if worn properly, facemasks are an effective intervention strategy in reducing the spread of novel H1N1.