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Center for Nonlinear Studies |
What can climate models, constrained by historical observations, tell us about the uncertainty in the future climate, and how quickly can we reduce this uncertainty? The first part of the talk uses an energy balance climate model, coupled to box models of the carbon cycle and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), to explore the probability of a future MOC collapse, and the possibility of committing irreversibly to a future collapse. The second part of the talk uses the same climate model to explore the rate at which we may reduce our uncertainty about the equilibrium climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide through continued observation of the climate system.
Host: James R. Gattiker, gatt@lanl.gov, 505.665.1286, CCS-6, Statistical Sciences