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Center for Nonlinear Studies |
Climate sensitivity may be defined as the globally averaged increase in surface temperature in response to a specified increase in greenhouse gases, say a doubling of carbon dioxide. It is a very useful, if somewhat coarse, measure provided two other pieces of information are provided: The uncertainty of the measure, and the timescales on which the warming is expected. The latter is determined, at least in part, by the rate of heat uptake by ocean. We will attempt to clarify the issue of time scales as well as provide an observationally based probabilistic estimate of the climate sensitivity of most relevance to society.
Host: Beth Wingate, CCS-2 , wingate@lanl.gov