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Center for Nonlinear Studies |
I will describe a mathematical model for the spread of Rift Valley fever virus (RVF) and how the model can help predict the spread of the disease and be used to prioritize mitigation strategies. RVF is an emerging mosquito-borne zoonotic disease that causes significant loss as it cycles between wildlife, livestock, and people in Africa. Our model correlates the weather and the underlying mechanisms driving the epidemics, such as the mosquito population, herd immunity, transmission from mosquitoes to wildlife, and the persistence of the virus between wet seasons. I will give an introduction to a simple susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) ordinary differential equation model for the spread of RVF in African buffalo in Kruger National Park. Then, I will present results from a large-scale agent-based spatial network model (MuSE) for RVF to investigate the role of spatial heterogeneity. Both models account for environmental factors such as rainfall and temperature for variations in mosquito-related parameters. Finally, I will describe a network-patch model that couples general agent-based human models (e.g. EpiSIMS) to mosquito habitat patches in order to incorporate mosquito-borne disease into simulations.
Host: Humberto C Godinez Vazquez, Mathematical Modeling and Analysis Theoretical Division, 5-9188