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Center for Nonlinear Studies |
As the global populations of humans increase, and the requisite food-sources expand, we are at increased vulnerability for new and evolving infectious diseases. Mitigating the effects of disease outbreaks is of paramount importance for preventing the spread of an epidemic (or even a pandemic), and modeling the disease progression, and potential mitigations, is a vital component to any effective response. However, modeling anticipated disease progression is a complex problem, with multiple techniques, many of which involve developing a new model of disease progression for every new outbreak that occurs. Our group has designed a compartmentalized (SEIR-like) mathematical model that tracks the heterogeneity of outbreaks in select geographic regions. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, I will present the modeling results for four outbreaks of avian influenza A(H7N9) in the Yangtze River region of China from the last decade. These cases illustrate how our approach can describe real-world outbreaks, and enable us to plan for mitigation strategies to combat outbreaks in the future.
Host: David Métivier