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Center for Nonlinear Studies |
As the energy system moves toward variable renewable electricity, sectors such as aviation may require energy-dense low-carbon liquid fuels to dramatically reduce emissions. Electrofuels, synthesized from CO2 from direct air capture and hydrogen from electrolysis of water, powered primarily by solar or wind electricity, may present a cost-effective path forward. However, this approach will require operating capital-intensive equipment using variable renewable electricity. I employ an optimization-based techno-economic analysis to assess the prospects for large cost reductions, accounting for changes in optimal system operation as component technologies advance. I find that although producing such electrofuels today would cost upward of $4 per liter of gasoline equivalent (lge), costs could fall below $1/lge by 2050, potentially competitive with fossil jet fuel. Through a sensitivity analysis, I identify key parameters including, various forms of operational flexibility, as priorities for future research, development, and deployment.
Host: Anatoly Zlotnik